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Outlook on 2014 Baseball Hall of Fame inductees

Coming up on Wednesday, the National Baseball Hall of Fame will announce the 2014 class of recently retired players voted in by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA). The announcement will be televised at 1p on MLB Network.

The Baseball Think Factory website has been tracking the votes released by BBWAA members in advance of Wednesday’s announcement. I’ve been following their page over the past week (click here) and it’s been a fascinating read.

As of the writing of this article, Baseball Think Factory predicts four players to meet the 75% threshold to get into the Hall of Fame.  They are:

Predicted Vote–  Player, Position, Primary Team
100%  – Greg Maddux P (Atlanta Braves)
97.2 – Tom Glavine P (Atlanta Braves)
92.4 – Frank Thomas 1B/ DH (Chicago White Sox)
80.7 – Craig Biggio 2B/ C/ CF (Houston Astros)

After last year’s disheartening vote by the BBWAA in which no recently retired players were voted into the Hall of Fame, four players for 2014 would be a big improvement.  I also doubt Maddux will get 100% of the vote, but I could see him on at least 97% of the ballots.

Three players that appear to be with 10 percentage points of enshrinement include Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell and Jack Morris. However, for Morris, this is his final year to be on the BBWAA ballot and his future candidacy would have to be considered by the Expansion Era Committee.

I think both Bagwell and Piazza have the numbers to be in the Hall of Fame, but it appears that the anti-PED sentiments by many of the BBWAA voters will keep them out of the hall, even though neither player was ever suspended for PED use.  If either player eventually gets into the Hall of Fame, it would probably be on a vote of less than 77%.

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